May 15, 2006
By JEANNE CUMMINGS
Wall Street Journal
President Bush's low approval ratings are prompting the White House and Capitol Hill Republicans to design a midterm strategy aimed at an unlikely set of voters: their own party activists.
That helps explain why the Senate is moving on two long-blocked judicial nominees and why President Bush is expected to send nearly two dozen more to the Senate any day. The low poll numbers are also among reasons why votes in Congress are likely in coming months on social issues crucial to conservatives and why White House political adviser Karl Rove, in an address to the American Enterprise Institute Monday, is expected to lay the foundation for an attack on Democrats, perhaps by reminding his audience that liberal leaders and ideas would return if Republicans lose control of either house of Congress. The ratings also help explain why in Mr. Bush's Oval Office speech on immigration Monday night, he will toughen his talk on policing borders, possibly with National Guard help.
The goal is to galvanize fiscal and social conservatives and get them to vote in November instead of sitting out the elections because of mounting frustration over government spending, illegal immigration, a stall in judicial nominations and what they say is a lack of leadership in Washington. In recent surveys, self-described conservatives have begun deserting the president. A Gallup Poll this month showed conservative support for Mr. Bush at just over 50% from a group that for years backed the White House at a rate of 80% or better.
Republicans find that more worrisome than Mr. Bush's slide in popularity among the general public. Support from conservatives has helped him and his party win elections with huge turnout from loyalists, even as he used his "compassionate conservative" mantle to reach out to moderates and independents.
"There is a lot of discontent," says the Rev. Rick Scarborough, president of Vision America, an organization based in Texas aimed at mobilizing conservative pastors. "Values voters see their vote as a sacred trust, and they are not going to vote for waffling and compromising candidates. I'm doing my best to get that message to the waffling candidates."
Congressional leaders are lining up a series of votes to ease discontent within the party, and Republicans still have plenty of time before the midterms to reinvigorate their base.
The extension of Bush tax cuts last week is seen as a first step toward rehabilitating relations with fiscal conservatives. Wednesday, Mr. Bush will trumpet that with a signing ceremony on the White House South Lawn. But "that's last year's homework turned in late," says Grover Norquist, head of the advocacy group Americans for Tax Reform. This year, fiscal activists want to see an end to the estate tax, repeal of the excise tax on telephone bills and a clear signal that Republicans are ready to curb spending. They are expecting President Bush to find a deficit-expanding bill to veto soon -- which would mark his first veto during two terms in office. "It's five years late on drawing the line on spending, but better late than never," Mr. Norquist says.
For years, conservatives have said liberal judges have thwarted their electoral victories. Mr. Bush promised in 2000 to deliver to them the third branch of government. With Democrats in control of the Senate, his first nominees were stymied but Republicans used it in 2002 to regain control of the chamber.
When Democrats filibustered a handful of the president's nominees, Republicans and Mr. Bush pushed the issue again with voters in 2004 and widened their Senate majority. Conservatives claimed two Supreme Court seats with the confirmation of Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Samuel Alito.
Many conservatives expected the White House to use that momentum to fill dozens of vacancies on district and circuit federal courts. But the White House was preoccupied with revelations about domestic surveillance and secret overseas terrorism prisons, and Congress by a number of ethics scandals. Mr. Rove -- a vital conduit between Mr. Bush and the right -- has been caught up in a grand jury leak investigation. Mr. Rove denies doing anything wrong.
With elected leaders tumbling in opinion polls, conservatives this spring began threatening their own form of political payback if the White House and Senate didn't get back to the business of judicial appointments.
[courting the base]
Senate leaders, eager to calm the unrest, began moving on two nominations to the federal circuit court: former White House lawyer Brent Kavanaugh and U.S. District Court Judge Terrence Boyle. The administration recently called leaders of social, religious and legal conservative groups to a meeting to discuss judicial nominations. But some of the biggest names boycotted the session, saying they deemed it patronizing. It didn't help that it was to be led by White House Counsel Harriet Miers, whose nomination to the Supreme Court last fall was abandoned by the president after conservatives deemed her unacceptable. Now, Ms. Miers is leading the team that is assembling the two dozen or so nominees who are expected to be forwarded soon to the Senate, and conservatives remain wary.
"We are all trying to convey to the White House and Senate leadership that this is not just about Iraq, higher gas prices and Department of Defense scandals," says Manuel Miranda, chairman of the Third Branch Conference, a group dedicated to confirming conservative judges. "That's what centrist journalists talk about. The values voters, who care about judges, are the people who gave the president Ohio."
Next month, Congress is expected to address social conservatives' concerns with a vote on a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage. An anti-flag-burning amendment also is on the calendar, along with bills that would ban or limit stem-cell research. Other issues important to social conservatives include banning Internet gambling and prohibiting the transfer of a minor across state lines to obtain an abortion unless her parents approve the trip.
Such votes would go a way toward recharging conservative energy, but some worry that Republican leaders on Capitol Hill are so stunned by their poll numbers that they have lost the fight. "On gas prices, we are running around with $100 rebates, for heaven's sake. Go to ANWR," says Greg Mueller, a Republican political adviser, in a reference to a proposal to allow oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge -- a practice most Democrats oppose. "Let's get into a battle with the Democrats and draw them out," Mr. Mueller adds.
Republican leaders also are struggling to hammer out an agreement among themselves over immigration, the hottest complaint among the base. Many activists outside Washington back a House-passed bill that tightens security -- with a fence on the nation's southern border -- and that would impose criminal charges against illegal immigrants and those who help or hire them. The Senate approach, which balances security with eventual citizenship for many illegal immigrants already in the country, infuriates one wing of conservatives, who see it as caving to the party's business backers. "What's the purpose of having a Republican majority if they won't fight these battles?" Mr. Scarborough asks.
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